Use of multiple pharmacodynamic measures to deconstruct the Nix-TB regimen in a short-course murine model of tuberculosis.

A major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) drug development is to prioritize promising combination regimens from a large and growing number of possibilities. This includes demonstrating individual drug contributions to the activity of higher-order combinations. A BALB/c mouse TB infection model was used to evaluate the contributions of each drug and pairwise combination in the clinically relevant Nix-TB regimen [bedaquiline-pretomanid-linezolid (BPaL)] during the first 3 weeks of treatment at human equivalent doses. The rRNA synthesis (RS) ratio, an exploratory pharmacodynamic (PD) marker of ongoing Mycobacterium tuberculosis rRNA synthesis, together with solid culture CFU counts and liquid culture time to positivity (TTP) were used as PD markers of treatment response in lung tissue; and their time-course profiles were mathematically modeled using rate equations with pharmacologically interpretable parameters. Antimicrobial interactions were quantified using Bliss independence and Isserlis formulas. Subadditive (or antagonistic) and additive effects on bacillary load, assessed by CFU and TTP, were found for bedaquiline-pretomanid and linezolid-containing pairs, respectively. In contrast, subadditive and additive effects on rRNA synthesis were found for pretomanid-linezolid and bedaquiline-containing pairs, respectively. Additionally, accurate predictions of the response to BPaL for all three PD markers were made using only the single-drug and pairwise effects together with an assumption of negligible three-way drug interactions. The results represent an experimental and PD modeling approach aimed at reducing combinatorial complexity and improving the cost-effectiveness of in vivo systems for preclinical TB regimen development.

Exercise to socialize? Bidirectional relationships between physical activity and loneliness in middle-aged and older American adults.

Physical inactivity and loneliness are both associated with health risks and can affect each other through various social and behavioral mechanisms. However, current evidence on this relationship is equivocal and mostly based on cross-sectional data. This longitudinal study aims to determine whether current levels of physical activity (moderate- and vigorous-intensity) and loneliness are associated with future respective states of themselves and each other. Data from waves 6-14 (2002-2018) of the Health and Retirement Study were used (n=20,134) in a mixed-effects and random intercept cross-lagged panel model. Analysis showed that current loneliness and physical activity were associated with each future respective state. Additionally, weekly participation in moderate-intensity, but not vigorous-intensity, physical activity was associated with a lower likelihood of becoming lonely in the future (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.99). However, changes in physical activity were not associated with deviation from a person's typical level of loneliness (vigorous-intensity mean deviation (MD): 0.00; 95% CI: -0.04-0.03, moderate-intensity MD: 0.01; 95% CI: -0.03-0.04). Loneliness was not associated with moderate- or vigorous-intensity physical activity in subsequent waves. This suggests that while lower physical activity levels can be associated with future loneliness, changing levels of physical activity has little impact on loneliness at the individual level.

Beneficial and harmful effects of physical activity on care-seeking for low back pain: the AUTBACK study.

PURPOSE: People who seek more care for low back pain (LBP) tend to experience poorer recovery (e.g. higher pain and disability levels). Understanding the factors associated with care-seeking for LBP might improve patient outcomes and potentially alleviate the burden of LBP on global health systems. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between different intensities, volumes, and domains of physical activity and care-seeking behaviours, in people with a history of LBP. METHODS: Longitudinal data from adult twins were drawn from the AUstralian Twin BACK study. The primary outcome was the total self-reported frequency (counts) of overall utilisation of care for LBP, over 1 year. Secondary outcomes were the utilisation of health services, and the utilisation of self-management strategies, for LBP (assessed as total frequency over 1 year). Explanatory variables were device-based measures of sedentary behaviour and moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity, and self-reported physical workload, and work, transport, household, and leisure domain physical activity, at baseline. RESULTS: Data from 340 individuals were included. Median age was 56.4 years (IQR 44.9-62.3 years) and 73% of participants were female. Medium-to-high baseline volumes of sedentary behaviour were significantly associated with greater counts of overall care utilisation (IRR 1.60, 95%CI 1.04-2.44) and utilisation of self-management strategies (IRR 1.60, 95%CI 1.02-2.50) for LBP, over 1 year. Medium-to-high baseline volumes of household domain physical activity were significantly associated with greater counts of utilising self-management strategies for LBP over 1 year (IRR 1.62, 95%CI 1.04-2.53). No explanatory variables were associated with the utilisation of health services for LBP. CONCLUSION: People who engage in higher baseline volumes of sedentary behaviour or physical activity in the household setting (e.g. housework, gardening, yard work, general household maintenance) utilise 1.6 times more care for LBP over 1 year. Findings suggest that higher volumes of these behaviours may be harmful for LBP. No intensities, volumes, or domains of physical activity demonstrated clear benefits for LBP. Where feasible, patients and clinicians should collaborate to screen and develop strategies to reduce engagement in sedentary behaviour or physical activity in the household setting. Contextual factors (e.g. patient symptom severity, sociocultural roles, occupational demands) should be considered when devising appropriate behaviour change strategies.

Use of Multiple Pharmacodynamic Measures to Deconstruct the Nix-TB Regimen in a Short-Course Murine Model of Tuberculosis.

A major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) drug development is to prioritize promising combination regimens from a large and growing number of possibilities. This includes demonstrating individual drug contributions to the activity of higher-order combinations. A BALB/c mouse TB infection model was used to evaluate the contributions of each drug and pairwise combination in the clinically relevant Nix-TB regimen (bedaquiline-pretomanid-linezolid [BPaL]) during the first three weeks of treatment at human equivalent doses. RS ratio, an exploratory pharmacodynamic (PD) marker of ongoing Mycobacterium tuberculosis rRNA synthesis, to-gether with solid culture CFU and liquid culture time to positivity (TTP) were used as PD markers of treatment response in lung tissue; and their time course profiles were mathematically modeled using rate equations with pharmacologically interpretable parameters. Antimicrobial interactions were quantified using Bliss independence and Isserlis formulas. Subadditive (or antagonistic) and additive effects on bacillary load, assessed by CFU and TTP, were found for bedaquiline-pretomanid and linezolid-containing pairs, respectively. In contrast, subadditive and additive effects on rRNA synthesis were found for pretomanid-linezolid and bedaquiline-containing pairs, respectively. Additionally, accurate predictions of the response to BPaL for all three PD markers were made using only the single-drug and pairwise effects together with an assumption of negligible three-way drug interactions. The results represent an experimental and PD modeling approach aimed at reducing combinatorial complexity and improving the cost-effectiveness of in vivo systems for preclinical TB regimen development.

Implementation and evaluation of a quality improvement initiative to reduce late gestation stillbirths in Australia: Safer Baby Bundle study protocol.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the stillbirth rate after 28 weeks (late gestation) in Australia was 35% higher than countries with the lowest rates globally. Reductions in late gestation stillbirth rates have steadily improved in Australia. However, to amplify and sustain reductions, more needs to be done to reduce practice variation and address sub-optimal care. Implementing bundles for maternity care improvement in the UK have been associated with a 20% reduction in stillbirth rates. A similar approach is underway in Australia; the Safer Baby Bundle (SBB) with five elements: 1) supporting women to stop smoking in pregnancy, 2) improving detection and management of fetal growth restriction, 3) raising awareness and improving care for women with decreased fetal movements, 4) improving awareness of maternal safe going-to-sleep position in late pregnancy, 5) improving decision making about the timing of birth for women with risk factors for stillbirth. METHODS: This is a mixed-methods study of maternity services across three Australian states; Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales. The study includes evaluation of 'targeted' implementer sites (combined total approximately 113,000 births annually, 50% of births in these states) and monitoring of key outcomes state-wide across all maternity services. Progressive implementation over 2.5 years, managed by state Departments of Health, commenced from mid-2019. This study will determine the impact of implementing the SBB on maternity services and perinatal outcomes, specifically for reducing late gestation stillbirth. Comprehensive process, impact, and outcome evaluations will be conducted using routinely collected perinatal data, pre- and post- implementation surveys, clinical audits, focus group discussions and interviews. Evaluations explore the views and experiences of clinicians embedding the SBB into routine practice as well as women's experience with care and the acceptability of the initiative. DISCUSSION: This protocol describes the evaluation of the SBB initiative and will provide evidence for the value of a systematic, but pragmatic, approach to strategies to reduce the evidence-practice gaps across maternity services. We hypothesise successful implementation and uptake across three Australian states (amplified nationally) will be effective in reducing late gestation stillbirths to that of the best performing countries globally, equating to at least 150 lives saved annually. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Safer Baby Bundle Study was retrospectively registered on the ACTRN12619001777189 database, date assigned 16/12/2019.

Assessing physical activity in people with mental illness: 23-country reliability and validity of the simple physical activity questionnaire (SIMPAQ).

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a key contributor to the global burden of disease and disproportionately impacts the wellbeing of people experiencing mental illness. Increases in physical activity are associated with improvements in symptoms of mental illness and reduction in cardiometabolic risk. Reliable and valid clinical tools that assess physical activity would improve evaluation of intervention studies that aim to increase physical activity and reduce sedentary behaviour in people living with mental illness. METHODS: The five-item Simple Physical Activity Questionnaire (SIMPAQ) was developed by a multidisciplinary, international working group as a clinical tool to assess physical activity and sedentary behaviour in people living with mental illness. Patients with a DSM or ICD mental illness diagnoses were recruited and completed the SIMPAQ on two occasions, one week apart. Participants wore an Actigraph accelerometer and completed brief cognitive and clinical assessments. RESULTS: Evidence of SIMPAQ validity was assessed against accelerometer-derived measures of physical activity. Data were obtained from 1010 participants. The SIMPAQ had good test-retest reliability. Correlations for moderate-vigorous physical activity was comparable to studies conducted in general population samples. Evidence of validity for the sedentary behaviour item was poor. An alternative method to calculate sedentary behaviour had stronger evidence of validity. This alternative method is recommended for use in future studies employing the SIMPAQ. CONCLUSIONS: The SIMPAQ is a brief measure of physical activity and sedentary behaviour that can be reliably and validly administered by health professionals.

Reducing financial barriers through the implementation of voucher incentives to promote children's participation in community sport in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Participation in organised sport and physical activity contributes to health-enhancing levels of leisure time physical activity. In Australia, 58% of children aged 0-14 years participated at least once a week in October 2015 - December 2017. To overcome the frequently cited cost barrier, sports voucher incentives have been widely implemented across Australia. METHOD: The financial value of jurisdictional vouchers and the National median financial value were used to calculate the proportion of total annual expenditure on children's participation in sport supported by sports vouchers. Participation rates using AusPlay data were estimated by age, sex and socio-economic index (SEIFA) at state and national level for children aged 0-14 years. RESULTS: Five States and Territories implemented sports vouchers from 2011 to 2018, with a median value of AU$150. Nationally, median annual expenditure for children's sport participation was AU$447 (IQR $194.2-936), with 27% reported expenditure supported by a sports voucher. The proportion of financial support from sports vouchers increased considerably with social disadvantage, rising to over 60% of total expenditure in the most disadvantaged populations. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-economic status was associated with sports-related expenditure and sports participation amongst children. Sport vouchers should target children in the most disadvantaged areas to promote participation in organised sport and physical activity.

Sixteen years of social and ecological dynamics reveal challenges and opportunities for adaptive management in sustaining the commons.

Efforts to confront the challenges of environmental change and uncertainty include attempts to adaptively manage social-ecological systems. However, critical questions remain about whether adaptive management can lead to sustainable outcomes for both ecosystems and society. Here, we make a contribution to these efforts by presenting a 16-y analysis of ecological outcomes and perceived livelihood impacts from adaptive coral reef management in Papua New Guinea. The adaptive management system we studied was a customary rotational fisheries closure system (akin to fallow agriculture), which helped to increase the biomass of reef fish and make fish less wary (more catchable) relative to openly fished areas. However, over time the amount of fish in openly fished reefs slowly declined. We found that, overall, resource users tended to have positive perceptions about this system, but there were negative perceptions when fishing was being prohibited. We also highlight some of the key traits of this adaptive management system, including 1) strong social cohesion, whereby leaders played a critical role in knowledge exchange; 2) high levels of compliance, which was facilitated via a "carrot-and-stick" approach that publicly rewarded good behavior and punished deviant behavior; and 3) high levels of participation by community actors.

The Funding, Administrative, and Policy Influences on the Evaluation of Primary Prevention Programs in Australia.

Evaluation of primary prevention and health promotion programs contributes necessary information to the evidence base for prevention programs. There is increasing demand for high-quality evaluation of program impact and effectiveness for use in public health decision making. Despite the demand for evidence and known benefits, evaluation of prevention programs can be challenging and organizations face barriers to conducting rigorous evaluation. Evaluation capacity building efforts are gaining attention in the prevention field; however, there is limited knowledge about how components of the health promotion and primary prevention system (e.g., funding, administrative arrangements, and the policy environment) may facilitate or hinder this work. We sought to identify the important influences on evaluation practice within the Australian primary prevention and health promotion system. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with experienced practitioners and managers (n = 40) from government and non-government organizations, and used thematic analysis to identify the main factors that impact on prevention program evaluation. Firstly, accountability and reporting requirements impacted on evaluation, especially if expectations were poorly aligned between the funding body and prevention organization. Secondly, the funding and political context was found to directly and indirectly affect the resources available and evaluation approach. Finally, it was found that participants made use of various strategies to modify the prevention system for more favorable conditions for evaluation. We highlight the opportunities to address barriers to evaluation in the prevention system, and argue that through targeted investment, there is potential for widespread gain through improved evaluation capacity.

A review of UK media coverage of physical activity associated with the publication of special issues in a high-impact medical journal.

OBJECTIVES: The media is a substantial vehicle for conveying public health messages to the public. This study examined the extent to which the publication of special issues in a high-impact medical journal in 2012 and 2016 generated media interest in physical activity and health in the UK and explored the main issues that were reported. STUDY DESIGN: This is a systematic narrative review of print media. METHODS: Relevant print news articles were identified by searching Factiva and Google News. The timeframe of each search was 2 weeks, using the publication date of each special issue as the anchor point. Overall, 20 articles were included in the analysis for 2012 and 37 articles for 2016. RESULTS: The news media coverage was encouraging for the profile of physical activity and health. In 2012 and 2016, common themes included the benefits of physical activity and the risks of being inactive, comparisons between mortality rates from physical inactivity and smoking and the recommended volume of physical activity to benefit health. CONCLUSIONS: The profile given to an issue through prestigious scientific publication is one of the levers for community attention and policy change. Efforts are needed to further use the media for improving policy, practice and public awareness, which are antecedents to population health change.

Organizational determinants of evaluation practice in Australian prevention agencies.

Program evaluation is essential to inform decision making, contribute to the evidence base for strategies, and facilitate learning in health promotion and disease prevention organizations. Theoretical frameworks of organizational learning, and studies of evaluation capacity building describe the organization as central to evaluation capacity. Australian prevention organizations recognize limitations to current evaluation effectiveness and are seeking guidance to build evaluation capacity. This qualitative study identifies organizational facilitators and barriers to evaluation practice, and explores their interactions in Australian prevention organizations. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 40 experienced practitioners from government and non-government organizations. Using thematic analysis, we identified seven key themes that influence evaluation practice: leadership, organizational culture, organizational systems and structures, partnerships, resources, workforce development and training and recruitment and skills mix. We found organizational determinants of evaluation to have multi-level interactions. Leadership and organizational culture influenced organizational systems, resource allocation and support of staff. Partnerships were important to overcome resource deficits, and systems were critical to embed evaluation within the organization. Organizational factors also influenced the opportunities for staff to develop skills and confidence. We argue that investment to improve these factors would allow organizations to address evaluation capacity at multiple levels, and ultimately facilitate effective evaluation practice.

Neighborhood walkability moderates the association between low back pain and physical activity: A co-twin control study.

The aim of this study was to investigate whether neighborhood walkability moderates the association between low back pain (LBP) and physical activity (PA), using a co-twin design to control for genetics and shared environmental factors. A cross-sectional analysis was performed on 10,228 twins from the Washington State Twin Registry with available data on LBP from recruitment surveys between 2009 and 2013. LBP within the past 3months was our exposure variable. Our outcome variables were sufficient moderate or vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA, defined as at least 75min of vigorous-intensity PA, or 150min of moderate-intensity PA per week), and walking (≥150min per week). Neighborhood walkability, estimated using the commercially available Walk Score®, was our moderator variable. After controlling for the influence of genetics and shared environment, individuals reporting LBP were significantly less likely to engage in sufficient MVPA if they lived in a neighborhood with high walkability (OR=0.59, 95%CI: 0.36-0.96). There was no association between LBP and sufficient MVPA for individuals living in a neighborhood with low walkability (OR=1.27, 95%CI: 0.93-1.72), demonstrating that walkability is a significant moderator of the association between LBP and PA (interaction p=0.013). These findings were similar for the association between LBP and walking (high walkability OR=0.42, 95%CI: 0.22-0.78; low walkability OR=0.71, 95%CI: 0.46-1.12), although the interaction was not significant (p=0.700). Neighborhood walkability moderates the association between LBP and PA. Our results highlight the importance of targeting interventions promoting PA towards individuals with LBP living in a neighborhood with good walkable access to amenities.

The use of smartphone health apps and other mobile health (mHealth) technologies in dietetic practice: a three country study.

BACKGROUND: Smartphone health applications (apps) and other mobile health (mHealth) technologies may assist dietitians in improving the efficiency of patient care. The present study investigated the use of health apps and text messaging in dietetic practice and formulated intervention recommendations for supporting app uptake by dietitians based on the behavioural 'COM-B' system, where interactions between capability, opportunity and motivation influence behaviour. METHODS: A 52-item online survey tool, taking 20 min to complete, was developed and piloted, with questions exploring the use of health apps and text messaging in dietetic practice, types of apps dietitians recommended and that patients used, and barriers and enablers to app use in dietetic practice. The Australian, New Zealand and British dietetic associations distributed the survey to their members. RESULTS: A 5% response rate was achieved internationally, with 570 completed responses included for further analysis. Health apps, namely nutrition apps, were used by 62% of dietitians in their practice, primarily as an information resource (74%) and for patient self-monitoring (60%). The top two nutrition apps recommended were MyFitnessPal® (62%) and the Monash University Low FODMAP Diet® (44%). Text messaging was used by 51% of respondents, mainly for appointment-related purposes (84%). CONCLUSIONS: Although the reported use of smartphone health apps in dietetic practice is high, health apps and other mHealth technologies are not currently being used for behaviour change, nor are they an integral part of the nutrition care process. Dietetic associations should provide training, education and advocacy to enable the profession to more effectively engage with and implement apps into their practice.

The Beneficial Effects of Physical Activity: Is It Down to Your Genes? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Twin and Family Studies.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence for considerable heterogeneity in the responsiveness to regular physical activity (PA) which might reflect the influence of genetic factors. The aim of this systematic review was to assess whether the response to a PA intervention for measures of body composition and cardiorespiratory fitness is (i) correlated within twin pairs and/or families and (ii) more correlated in monozygotic twins (MZ) compared to dizygotic twins (DZ), which would be consistent with genetic effects. METHODS: We performed electronic database searches, combining key words relating to "physical activity" and "genetics", in MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, SPORTS Discuss, AMED, PsycINFO, WEB OF SCIENCE, and SCOPUS from the earliest records to March 2016. Twin and family studies were included if they assessed body composition and/or cardiorespiratory fitness following a PA intervention, and provided a heritability estimate, maximal heritability estimate, or within MZ twin pair correlation (rMZ). Data on heritability (twin studies), maximal heritability (family studies), and the rMZ were extracted from included studies, although heritability estimates were not reported as small sample sizes made them uninformative. RESULTS: After screening 224 full texts, nine twin and five family studies were included in this review. The pooled rMZ in response to PA was significant for body mass index (rMZ = 0.69, n = 58), fat mass (rMZ = 0.58, n = 48), body fat percentage (rMZ = 0.55, n = 72), waist circumference (rMZ = 0.50, n = 27), and VO2max (rMZ = 0.39, n = 48), where "n" represents the total number of twin pairs from all studies. Maximal heritability estimates ranged from 0-21% for measures of body composition, and 22-57% for cardiorespiratory fitness. Twin studies differed in sample age, baseline values, and PA intervention, although the exclusion of any one study did not affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: Shared familial factors, including genetics, are likely to be a significant contributor to the response of body composition and cardiorespiratory fitness following PA. Genetic factors may explain individual variation in the response to PA. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: PROSPERO Registration No CRD42015020056 .

30-year trends in overweight, obesity and waist-to-height ratio by socioeconomic status in Australian children, 1985 to 2015.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: To report 30-year (1985-2015) prevalence trends in overweight, obesity and abdominal obesity among children by school level and socioeconomic status (SES). SUBJECTS/METHODS: Five cross-sectional, population child surveys (age 4-18 years; n=27 808) conducted in 1985-1997-2004-2010-2015 in New South Wales, Australia. Outcomes were prevalence of measured overweight, obesity and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR⩾0.5) by sex, school level (children (primary) and adolescents (high)) and SES tertile. RESULTS: In 2015, the prevalences of overweight, obesity and WHtR⩾0.5 in children were 16.4%, 7.0% and 14.6%, respectively, and in adolescents 21.9%, 17.2% and 4.6%, respectively. Obesity prevalence has not significantly changed in children or adolescents since 1997, nor since 2010 (children, P=0.681; adolescents, P=0.21). Overweight has not significantly changed in children since 1997, but has in adolescents since 1985, with a relative increase of 16 percentage points (P<0.001) between 2010 and 2015. WHtR⩾0.5 prevalence has significantly changed since 1985, except in adolescent girls between 2010 and 2015. Between 2010 and 2015 the relative increase in WHtR⩾0.5 was 17 and 40 percentage points in children and adolescent boys, respectively. Significant disparities in prevalence rates between children and adolescents from low and high SES backgrounds began in 2010 for overweight, since 1997 for obesity and since 2004 for WHtR⩾0.5. Differences between SES groups have become larger over the past 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Since 1997, obesity has remained stable, and overweight has stabilized in children, not in adolescents. WHtR⩾0.5 significantly increased between 1985 and 2015, with prevalence rates at each survey around twice the obesity prevalence. Compared with high SES children and adolescents, the risk of overweight, obesity and WHtR⩾0.5 was significantly higher for low SES children and adolescents. The findings are highly relevant to policy makers involved in child obesity prevention interventions and highlight the need for better targeted interventions among children and adolescents from low SES backgrounds, and adolescents in particular.

Does physical activity moderate the association between alcohol drinking and all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular diseases mortality? A pooled analysis of eight British population cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether physical activity (PA) moderates the association between alcohol intake and all-cause mortality, cancer mortality and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) mortality. DESIGN: Prospective study using 8 British population-based surveys, each linked to cause-specific mortality: Health Survey for England (1994, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004 and 2006) and Scottish Health Survey (1998 and 2003). PARTICIPANTS: 36 370 men and women aged 40 years and over were included with a corresponding 5735 deaths and a mean of 353 049 person-years of follow-up. EXPOSURES: 6 sex-specific categories of alcohol intake (UK units/week) were defined: (1) never drunk; (2) ex-drinkers; (3) occasional drinkers; (4) within guidelines (<14 (women); <21 (men)); (5) hazardous (14-35 (women); 21-49 (men)) and (6) harmful (>35 (women) >49 (men)). PA was categorised as inactive (≤7 MET-hour/week), active at the lower (>7.5 MET-hour/week) and upper (>15 MET-hour/week) of recommended levels. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cox proportional-hazard models were used to examine associations between alcohol consumption and all-cause, cancer and CVD mortality risk after adjusting for several confounders. Stratified analyses were performed to evaluate mortality risks within each PA stratum. RESULTS: We found a direct association between alcohol consumption and cancer mortality risk starting from drinking within guidelines (HR (95% CI) hazardous drinking: 1.40 (1.11 to 1.78)). Stratified analyses showed that the association between alcohol intake and mortality risk was attenuated (all-cause) or nearly nullified (cancer) among individuals who met the PA recommendations (HR (95% CI)). CONCLUSIONS: Meeting the current PA public health recommendations offsets some of the cancer and all-cause mortality risk associated with alcohol drinking.

Take a Stand!-a multi-component intervention aimed at reducing sitting time among office workers-a cluster randomized trial.

Background: Prolonged sitting time has been associated with adverse health outcomes. Interventions at work may contribute to reduced sitting. The objective was to test if a multicomponent work-based intervention can reduce sitting time and the number of prolonged sitting periods (> 30 min), increase the number of sit-to-stand transitions and decrease waist circumference and body fat percentage among office workers. Primary outcomes were: change in sitting time, prolonged sitting periods and sit-to-stand transitions at follow-up 1 month later. Methods: At four workplaces, 19 offices (317 workers in total) were cluster randomized for intervention or control. The intervention included the appointment of local ambassadors, management support, environmental changes, a lecture and a workshop. Sitting time was measured using an ActiGraph GT3X+ fixed on the thigh. Data were processed using Acti4 software providing data on time spent sitting, standing and doing other activities. Control participants were instructed to behave as usual. Follow-up measurements were obtained after 1 and 3 months. Results: At 1 and 3 months, total sitting time was 71 ( P < 0.001) and 48 min ( P < 0.001) lower per 8-h workday in the intervention group compared with the control group. At 1 month, the number of prolonged sitting periods was lower (-0.79/8-h workday, P < 0.001) and sit-to-stand transitions were higher (+14%/sitting hour, P = 0.001) in the intervention compared with the control group. After 3 months, trends persisted. The body fat percentage was lower by 0.61 percentage points ( P = 0.011) in the intervention group compared with the control group after 3 months. Conclusions: The multicomponent workplace-based intervention was effective in reducing sitting time, prolonged sitting periods and body fat percentage, and in increasing the number of sit-to-stand transitions.

Modelling obesity trends in Australia: unravelling the past and predicting the future.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Modelling is increasingly being used to predict the epidemiology of obesity progression and its consequences. The aims of this study were: (a) to present and validate a model for prediction of obesity among Australian adults and (b) to use the model to project the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity by 2025. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Individual level simulation combined with survey estimation techniques to model changing population body mass index (BMI) distribution over time. The model input population was derived from a nationally representative survey in 1995, representing over 12 million adults. Simulations were run for 30 years. The model was validated retrospectively and then used to predict obesity and severe obesity by 2025 among different aged cohorts and at a whole population level. RESULTS: The changing BMI distribution over time was well predicted by the model and projected prevalence of weight status groups agreed with population level data in 2008, 2012 and 2014.The model predicts more growth in obesity among younger than older adult cohorts. Projections at a whole population level, were that healthy weight will decline, overweight will remain steady, but obesity and severe obesity prevalence will continue to increase beyond 2016. Adult obesity prevalence was projected to increase from 19% in 1995 to 35% by 2025. Severe obesity (BMI>35), which was only around 5% in 1995, was projected to be 13% by 2025, two to three times the 1995 levels. CONCLUSIONS: The projected rise in obesity severe obesity will have more substantial cost and healthcare system implications than in previous decades. Having a robust epidemiological model is key to predicting these long-term costs and health outcomes into the future.